With inflation easing faster in recent months, Fed policy has become more restrictive. Concerns are mounting that the Federal Reserve may have once again lagged behind the curve. The latest jobs report provided little reassurance to investors, as employment growth appears to be decelerating more rapidly than anticipated.
In August, the economy added 142,000 jobs, but revisions for June and July reduced the three-month average to just 116,000 jobs, down from 211,000 jobs in the prior period. Year-to-date, the number of jobs added is only 69% of the total from the same period in 2023. Alarmingly, the majority of these new jobs are concentrated in just two sectors: government and health services.
Given the significant role of the housing sector in GDP and ongoing housing shortages, the notable rebound in construction employment in August, following a decline in July, provided some solace.
What’s causing the slowdown?
While hiring had been slowing since November 2021, hiring and separation rates have essentially plateaued. However, the expanding labor force – partially due to increased immigration – could soon reach its limit.
The proportion of prime working-age individuals employed is at its highest since April 2001. Yet, without an influx of younger workers into the United States, employment growth may continue to decelerate. […]
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